Long SPX – Betting on Tax Reform

As I recently mentioned in a YouTube video and a post on reddit, my latest investment is a bet that the S&P 500 will rise substantially in the next several weeks due to passage of a tax reform bill that contains one of the largest corporate tax cuts in US history.

I started this position in early November and added significantly to it after Thanksgiving, bringing the total investment to around $115,000. At the time, the bill’s future in the Senate was uncertain. Still, it seemed that the price of call options (a leveraged bet that a stock or group of stocks will go up in value) was inappropriately low considering the possibility of such a large change that could add 10-20% to the value of stocks overnight.

While a failure to pass a bill would likely result in a 100% loss of my investment, passage could mean a 20x return or higher. As of this past Thursday, this investment had already risen roughly 250%.

The breaking news about Flynn and Mueller on Friday caused a very significant but temporary dip, which was mostly reversed after ABC was forced to correct its report regarding the timing of Flynn’s contact with a Russian ambassador.

The Senate Bill was passed in the early morning hours of Saturday, well after the markets closed. Futures open in less than 3 hours, so I’ll have a better idea of where things are headed tomorrow shortly.

 

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